INEC AND THE ROAD TO 2027
By Ayo Ododo
There are probably few jobs in Nigeria more thankless than conducting an election. The winner thinks he won because the people loved him. The loser is often convinced he lost because somebody somewhere tampered with the process. Between the two stands the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), praised by one side, condemned by the other and expected somehow to satisfy contestants whose interests are, by definition, opposed.
Professor Joash Amupitan, SAN, knew, or must have quickly discovered, what he had inherited when he became chairman of the Commission.
The controversies surrounding the 2023 general election were still fresh, much of them centred on technology, particularly the electronic transmission and public availability of polling-unit results. Amupitan himself also came under scrutiny. His appointment, background and perceived associations became subjects of debate even before he had conducted a major election.
Perhaps that was inevitable. An INEC chairman does not have the luxury of starting at nil-nil. He begins with whatever score Nigerians have already awarded the institution.
What has been more interesting is his response.
Rather than engage in endless arguments about perception, the Commission under him appears to have concentrated on conducting elections. Ekiti provided the first major opportunity to see whether that approach would work.
The questions were familiar. Would officials and materials arrive on time? Would BVAS work? Would accreditation proceed smoothly? And would the results announced correspond with what voters and party agents witnessed at polling units?
The reports were largely encouraging.
The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, which deployed more than 200 accredited observers through partner organisations, reported that voting commenced early in approximately 92 per cent of polling units observed. Accreditation and voting procedures were generally followed, while BVAS reportedly functioned satisfactorily in most locations.
By about 7:30 that evening, more than 85 per cent of polling-unit results had been uploaded to IReV. CDD-West Africa similarly reported early deployment in many polling units and prompt intervention by INEC personnel where difficulties arose.
Perhaps more importantly, Yiaga Africa’s independent verification found that the results announced by INEC were consistent with ballots counted at polling units.
In a mature democracy, that should be unremarkable. Votes counted should, after all, be votes declared.
In Nigeria, unfortunately, the ordinary sometimes deserves celebration.
Ekiti was not perfect. Observers reported vote buying, isolated BVAS problems and accessibility difficulties. But perfection is hardly a sensible standard for judging an election involving hundreds of thousands of voters. The more important question is whether shortcomings materially undermine the process.
They apparently did not.
What Ekiti demonstrated was the value of preparation. Election administration is mostly about unglamorous things: getting materials to the right places, deploying trained officials, making technology work and responding quickly when it does not.
Then came Osun.
If Ekiti could be regarded as one good outing, Osun offered an opportunity to see whether it could be repeated. Its recent electoral history has included close contests, litigation and considerable partisan tension. Every stage was bound to be closely watched.
Again, independent observers reported a generally positive exercise.
The Situation Room, which deployed observers across all 30 local government areas, reported that officials and materials arrived on time in most locations observed and that voting commenced within the monitored period in 87 per cent of polling units.
By the following day, 98.43 per cent of polling-unit results had reportedly been uploaded to IReV. That mattered particularly because of the controversy following the 2023 general election. What had once been a source of considerable criticism was beginning to look increasingly routine.
Yiaga Africa subsequently concluded that INEC and the security agencies had largely passed the integrity test.
There were again problems,vote buying, occasional BVAS difficulties and delays, but the overall picture was difficult to dismiss.
Ekiti could have been an encouraging exception. Osun began to suggest a pattern.
That is where Amupitan deserves credit. Leadership of an electoral commission is ultimately judged less by speeches than by whether the organisation performs when an election arrives. The early evidence under his watch suggests a Commission paying serious attention to its operational responsibilities.
This does not mean two governorship elections have settled every question about INEC. They have not. But neither should improvement be ignored simply because scepticism has become the safer public position.
The sensible judgment lies somewhere between applause and cynicism.
Interestingly, another test recently arose much closer to Amupitan’s home.
There has been agitation over the creation of additional electoral wards in Kogi State. Reports that some local government areas in Kogi West, together with Okene in Kogi Central, were being considered for additional wards while Kogi East appeared not to benefit immediately generated criticism.
The matter was particularly sensitive because Amupitan himself comes from Kogi West. In Nigerian politics, geography is rarely just geography.
But the matter turned out to be more complicated than the initial arithmetic suggested.
There is a broader point here.
Electoral wards cannot remain frozen forever. Populations grow, settlements expand and communities that were small when boundaries were drawn decades ago may now contain many times their former population. Distances and administrative realities also change.
Some demands for additional wards may therefore be long overdue.
The fact that one area qualifies for new wards does not necessarily mean another has been denied its entitlement. Equality is not always arithmetic. What matters is whether the same objective criteria are applied to everyone.
If population, geography, settlement patterns and administrative convenience justify additional wards in parts of Kogi West, they should be considered. If communities in Kogi East, Kogi Central or elsewhere make an equally compelling case, the same rules should apply.
For Amupitan, however, there is an additional burden. When a decision affects his own senatorial district, even a defensible action will attract greater scrutiny. The best answer is a process transparent enough to speak for itself.
And all this leads inevitably to 2027.
The encouraging thing is that Amupitan will not approach that examination entirely untested.
Ekiti has provided lessons. Osun has reinforced them.
That is perhaps the real measure of Amupitan’s leadership.
Personal integrity is important in an office such as his. But an even greater achievement would be to strengthen INEC’s systems so that credible elections depend less on the personality of the chairman and more on the capacity of the institution.
There are, of course, limits to what INEC can do. Nigerian politicians have a curious relationship with electoral credibility. An election they win is usually evidence that democracy is flourishing. An election they lose can suddenly become the worst in the country’s history.
The umpire cannot win that argument.
Nor can INEC alone eliminate vote buying. An electoral commission can organise voting and protect the integrity of results, but it cannot manufacture democratic values for politicians who offer money or citizens willing to accept it. Those responsibilities are shared by political parties, security agencies, civil society, the media and voters themselves. The road to 2027 is still long, and there will undoubtedly be controversies along the way.
If the operational discipline seen so far can be reproduced on a national scale, 2027 may mark the consolidation of the improvements beginning to emerge under Professor Amupitan’s leadership.
The verdict must wait, but the early returns are promising.
Ayo Olodo is a journalist and public commentator based in Abuja.
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DemocracyNewslineNewspaper, September 7, 2026
