The Strategic Crossroads: Why Okun Land Must Tread Carefully Ahead of Kogi 2027
A quiet storm is brewing across Kogi West as the clock ticks steadily toward the 2027 governorship election. For the Okun people—the Yoruba-speaking bloc of Kogi State—the perennial quest to occupy Lord Lugard Street (the seat of power in Lokoja) has been rekindled with renewed passion. Yet, behind the passionate rallies and fiery rhetoric lies a complex political chessboard full of hidden traps, shifting alliances, and Trojan horses.
For Okun political strategists and community leaders, the road to 2027 is paved with critical dilemmas that demand astute diplomacy rather than raw emotion.
The most glaring paradox in the current Okun political landscape is the intense campaign by several Okun-born political appointees advocating for a second term for the incumbent Governor, Alhaji Ahmed Usman Ododo.
- Advertisement -
While this stance might seem like a betrayal to the Okun agitation, it is largely driven by political self-preservation. In Nigerian political parlance, “you do not talk while eating.” For appointees who have enjoyed continuous access to state patronage for nearly a decade, standing up against the ruling administration is politically risky.
While appointees must defend their seats, their vocal support for the incumbent creates a false narrative of unified Okun endorsement for a second Ododo term—muddying the waters for a genuine Okun consensus candidate.
Perhaps the most curious development in the run-up to 2027 is the sudden, vocal support for an Okun governorship coming from political actors in Kogi East (the Igala axis).
To many seasoned observers, this sudden camaraderie raises immediate red flags.
The story of leadership in Kogi State is a study in political dominance, unexpected twists, and enduring patience.
For nearly two decades following the return to democracy, power was firmly anchored in **Kogi East**. From 1999 to 2016, the Igala ethnic group held an unbroken monopoly over the governorship, rotating the state’s highest office among its own internal federal constituencies. During this 19-year stretch, the seat of power in Lokoja seemed all but permanently reserved for the East.
That status quo was broken not by a traditional ballot-box shift, but by a sudden turn of fate. Following the tragic demise of former Governor Abubakar Audu in the middle of the 2015 elections, power unexpectedly shifted to **Kogi Central**. Yahaya Bello assumed office in early 2016, giving the Ebira bloc its first real foothold in government. That momentum has carried forward into the current administration of Ahmed Usman Ododo, solidifying Central’s tenure.
Standing quietly on the sidelines throughout it all is **Kogi West**. Despite being a core pillar of the state’s creation, the Yoruba-speaking Okun people have never occupied the governor’s chair—remaining the only major zone yet to lead the Confluence State.
The fundamental question every Okun leader must ask: **Has there genuinely been a shift in mindset among Igala political elites?
Historically, Kogi East viewed the Lokoja government house as an exclusive entitlement, rotating power among its three federal constituencies for almost two decades. Power only left the East through an act of providence following the sudden demise of Prince Abubakar Audu in 2015.
Is the current support from the East a calculated move to use Okun votes to dismantle Kogi Central’s hold on power, only to reclaim the seat for the East shortly after? In politics, sudden affection often masks strategic self-interest.
This leaves Okun leaders navigating a classic political trap:
Path A — Align with Kogi Central (Incumbent Axis): Backing Governor Ododo’s second term guarantees continued patronage for a few, but effectively postpones the Okun governorship dream until at least 2031—with no absolute guarantee that power will shift West even then.
Path B — Align with Kogi East (Opposition Axis):** Partnering with the Igala bloc offers a potential shortcut to 2027, but risks placing Okun at the mercy of a political bloc with a long history of hegemony.
Navigating this delicate terrain requires Okun leaders to substitute emotion with calculated strategy.
To secure the governorship in 2027 or 2031, the Okun people must follow a clear three-step path:
It begins with internal unity, where Kogi West leaves behind fractured loyalties to rally behind a single consensus candidate—eliminating split votes that have historically weakened their position.
From there, political goodwill must be converted into a written agreement. By securing a binding Memorandum of Understanding with prospective coalition partners from the East or Central districts, Okun ensures promises are anchored in real commitments rather than empty campaign rhetoric.
Finally, the goal extends beyond a single election term to systemic rotation. By enshrining formal zonal power-sharing into law or party charters, Okun turns a one-time political victory into a permanent, predictable system of equity for all of Kogi State.
1. Okun cannot afford a crowded field. Fragmenting West votes across three or four candidates guarantees defeat.
2. Trust cannot be built on verbal promises or campaign rhetoric. Any alliance with the East or Central must be anchored on a publicly signed, legally and politically binding Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
3. Okun must push for a formalized, predictable rotation model similar to those successfully utilized in states like Niger and Ogun, ensuring that marginalization becomes a structural impossibility for any senatorial district.
The 2027 election represents a defining crossroads for Kogi West. The urge to jump at every friendly gesture from external blocs is tempting, but political sentiment without structural guarantees leads straight to regret.
As the political machinery heats up, Okun leaders, traditional rulers, youth organizations, and intellectuals must remember: in politics, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies—only permanent interests.
For Okun to finally break the decades-long jinx, it must make its choices with cool, calculating heads, not passionate hearts.
(DEMOCRACY NEWSLINE NEWSPAPER 27TH JULY)
