Political Defection in Kano: A Dangerous Gamble That Could Fracture APC, Weaken NNPP, and Redraw the State’s Political Map.
By Bala Salihu Dawakin Kudu Democracy Newsline on January 16, 2026.
Kano State has once again become the epicentre of Nigeria’s most combustible political drama. The ongoing defection talks involving Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf are not merely about changing party colours; they represent a high-stakes struggle for survival, supremacy, and relevance.
If mishandled, the process could trigger an unprecedented political crisis within the All Progressives Congress (APC), weaken the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and open a historic opportunity for opposition parties like the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
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Political defection is not new to Kano. From the days of PRP–NPN rivalry to the PDP–ANPP era and later APC–PDP realignments, Kano politics has always been fluid, emotional, and personality-driven. But the current situation is different in scale and consequence.
Kwankwaso is not just another politician; he is a movement. Ganduje is not merely a former governor; he is an entrenched APC power broker. Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf is not just an incumbent; he is the product of a fiercely contested mandate. Bringing these forces under one roof without clear consensus is like storing petrol beside fire.
The APC in Kano is already divided along powerful lines—Ganduje’s bloc, Senator Barau Jibrin’s rising structure, and various legacy factions. The possible defection of Kwankwaso and Abba Yusuf threatens to deepen these cracks into a full-blown collapse.
Kwankwaso’s reported “stringent conditions,” which allegedly include control of party structures and protection of his political machinery, strike at the heart of APC’s internal balance. Granting such demands would mean dismantling existing party hierarchies, humiliating long-standing loyalists, and sidelining aspirants already positioning for 2027.
Ganduje’s influence will be directly challenged.
Senator Barau’s governorship ambition could be suffocated, Grassroots APC members may feel betrayed and politically displaced and If APC rejects Kwankwaso and Abba Yusuf’s defection may collapse. The party risks losing relevance among Kwankwasiyya loyalists.
Either way, APC faces a lose-lose situation that could plunge the party into endless litigation, parallel congresses, and mass defections.
Any serious political observer knows the truth, Kwankwaso and Ganduje cannot peacefully coexist within the same party structure. Their rivalry is ideological, personal, and deeply rooted in betrayal, revenge, and political memory. Kwankwaso believes Ganduje hijacked his political legacy. Ganduje believes Kwankwaso seeks absolute control without compromise.
Forcing unity between them under APC may not strengthen the party—it may destroy it from within.
NNPP Under Threat: A House Built on One Pillar
While APC battles internal chaos, NNPP is also staring at a crisis. The party’s identity in Kano is almost entirely tied to Kwankwaso. If he defects: NNPP could lose its lawmakers, councillors, and ward structures, Governor Abba Yusuf may lose legitimacy within the party, Internal suspicion and accusations of betrayal may erupt.
As APC and NNPP bleed, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) could quietly emerge as the biggest winner. Disillusioned politicians, frustrated youths, civil society actors, and voters tired of recycled political battles may see ADC as a protest platform.
History shows that Kano voters can be unforgiving when pushed too far. The constant Kwankwaso–Ganduje dominance has produced fatigue, anger, and protest votes before—and it can happen again. APC members sidelined by elite power struggles.
NNPP supporters angry over betrayal and inconsistency.
Young voters demanding rest from political godfatherism and Voters’ Revolt teaching Old Titans a Lesson.
There is growing sentiment among Kano residents that the state is being held hostage by the ambitions of a few individuals. Many voters increasingly believe that elections have become personal wars rather than platforms for development.
If this frustration crystallises:
Voters may deliberately “park” them politically by voting a third force.
Kano could witness a political earthquake driven by protest votes.
This would not be about ideology—it would be about exhaustion. A Decision with National Consequences
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s eventual decision will shape not just Kano APC, but the party’s national image. Sacrificing internal democracy for short-term gains could haunt APC in 2027. Conversely, rejecting Kwankwaso outright could cost the party Kano’s strategic importance.
Whatever the outcome, the era of easy defections without consequences appears to be over.
The proposed defection of Kwankwaso and Abba Yusuf into APC is not a political merger—it is a high-risk gamble. APC may implode, NNPP may disintegrate, and ADC may rise from the cracks. Kano’s voters, tired of endless elite conflicts, may ultimately redraw the political map.
In trying to outsmart each other, Kano’s political giants may end up teaching themselves a painful lesson: no individual is bigger than the people—and the people may finally decide to rest.
Bala Salihu Dawakin Kudu wrote from Democracy Newsline political Desk can be reach via 08060017934.
(DEMOCRACY NEWSLINE NEWSPAPER, JANUARY 16TH 2026)
