Why Many Northerners Are Changing Their Minds About Opposing Tinubu’s Second Term Bid.
By Bala Salihu Dawakin Kudu
Democracy Newsline Newspaper
August 10, 2025
As Nigeria steadily moves toward the 2027 general elections, the political temperature is rising—especially in the North. Initially, there was strong opposition to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second-term ambition from various Northern quarters. The dissatisfaction stemmed largely from widespread insecurity, poverty, lack of critical infrastructure, and the economic hardship brought on by fuel subsidy removal and rising inflation. However, a growing number of Northern leaders and political strategists are beginning to shift their stance, calling for a more pragmatic approach to 2027. This development has raised an important question: Why are many Northerners reconsidering their opposition to Tinubu’s second term?
One of the major factors fueling this reconsideration is the disunity among Northern political elites. Since the end of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, no single political figure from the North has emerged as a consensus leader with the capacity to unify the region or decisively sway voters. While leaders like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar continue to push opposition narratives—now aligning with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and other coalition groups—many within the North are increasingly questioning the effectiveness and timing of such moves.
Without a clear political rallying figure, many Northern politicians are hesitant to gamble on an untested alternative to Tinubu, especially when zoning principles suggest that the North stands a better chance of reclaiming the presidency in 2031—if Tinubu completes a second term.
The North has long benefited from Nigeria’s informal zoning arrangement between the North and South. Right-thinking and strategic Northern leaders are now arguing that attempting to unseat Tinubu in 2027 could disrupt this rotation, potentially depriving the North of a legitimate claim to the presidency in 2031. This group of leaders believes that political stability and respect for zoning are more critical to Nigeria’s future than short-term political gains.
This sentiment is becoming increasingly popular among political thinkers in the region, who argue that the best path forward is to support Tinubu’s re-election, ensure continuity, and then prepare the North’s best candidates for a serious presidential run in 2031.
The political landscape was significantly altered when the Emir of Daura, Alhaji Faruk Umar Faruk—a highly revered traditional ruler and custodian of one of the most respected thrones in Northern Nigeria—publicly endorsed President Tinubu’s re-election bid. The Emir praised Tinubu’s leadership, particularly his dignified role during the burial of former President Buhari, describing it as a “deep show of honor and gratitude.”
While grassroots politicians argue that traditional endorsements do not always translate to votes, the symbolic value of such a declaration is significant. It sets a tone of royal approval and sends a subtle signal to political elites and the masses that Tinubu is not an outsider but a friend of the North.
Similarly, Gombe State Governor and Chairman of the Northern Governors’ Forum, Inuwa Yahaya, has openly thrown his weight behind President Tinubu’s re-election. He cited Tinubu’s commitment to Northern development, including the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano Expressway, Kano-Katsina-Maradi Rail Line, Kolmani Oilfield drilling, and the rehabilitation of the Kaduna Refinery.
Indeed, President Tinubu’s administration has initiated or continued several major infrastructure and economic projects in Northern Nigeria. These include: Abuja-Kaduna-Kano Expressway – An essential artery for trade and mobility, Kano-Katsina-Maradi Rail Line – Strengthening regional commerce and connectivity, Kaduna Refinery Rehabilitation – Aimed at restoring local fuel production, Kolmani Oilfields – A potential game-changer for energy and employment in the North, Abuja-Kaduna-Kano Gas Pipeline – Strengthening energy distribution.
Creation of the Federal Ministry of Livestock Development – Supporting agriculture and livestock economy.
While these projects are commendable, many Northerners argue that they are either incomplete or progressing too slowly. Additionally, the removal of fuel subsidies, lack of NEPA/power subsidies, and the resulting spike in cost of living continue to cast a long shadow over Tinubu’s achievements.
There is also a growing demand that if Tinubu truly wants Northern votes in 2027, he must deliver on promises, not rhetoric. Completing critical projects like the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano expressway and ensuring visible improvements in power, education, employment, and security are non-negotiable for many voters.
National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, recently claimed that there has been a significant reduction in Boko Haram attacks, banditry, and communal conflicts in the North under Tinubu’s leadership. While these claims hold some merit, many residents on the ground remain skeptical, citing continuing attacks, kidnappings, and displacement in several Northern communities.
Thus, while the government may point to statistics, what matters more to Northern voters is real-life experience. Until the average villager or trader feels safer in their community, security claims will be treated with suspicion and seen as part of the 2027 campaign narrative.
A growing concern among political observers is that Tinubu’s Northern political appointees are not telling him the hard truth about the North’s current political climate. They continue to project exaggerated loyalty and overestimate grassroots support. But for the masses, life has become more difficult, and they are not easily swayed by high-level endorsements or unfulfilled promises.
If Tinubu’s campaign relies solely on top-down endorsements without engaging directly with local issues, listening to the common people, and providing tangible solutions, then the 2027 campaign could face serious setbacks in the North.
For many Northern political strategists, supporting Tinubu in 2027 is less about love for the president and more about positioning the region for 2031. They view it as a strategic sacrifice: allow Tinubu to complete his 8 years in office, and in return, the presidency returns to the North with moral and political legitimacy.
This group believes that any attempt to disrupt this balance by fielding a Northern candidate in 2027 may backfire, leading to a repeat of internal divisions that cost the North leverage and unity.
The Northern opposition to Tinubu’s second term is not monolithic. While economic hardship, insecurity, and distrust remain valid concerns, there is also a growing current of thought that sees long-term benefit in allowing Tinubu to finish his term. For some, it’s about honoring the zoning arrangement. For others, it’s about maintaining stability and preparing strategically for 2031.
Whether this shifting mindset translates into votes will depend on one thing: delivery. Tinubu must act fast to complete the promises he made, especially in infrastructure, power, security, and job creation. Otherwise, all endorsements, no matter how revered, will fall flat at the ballot box.
The North may be divided, but it is also watching—closely.
